Bookmakers made Alexandre Pantoja a strong favourite against Steve Erceg when they square off in their contest on Saturday 4th May 2024 at UFC 301.
He is currently 4/11 (-280) to win the contest outright, while you can get 21/10 (+210) on Steve Erceg if you fancy the upset.
That means that oddsmakers think there is 70% chance of Pantoja winning while giving Erceg a 30% chance.
Pantoja opened as the favourite at 2/5 (-250) however, that price has now got wider by -24/25 (+100).
Erceg opened at 2/1 (+200) which has shorten by 11/-10 (+90).
The fight is scheduled for 5 rounds in the Flyweight division, which means both fighters will have to make the weight limit of 125 pounds (8.75 stones or 56.82 KG) on the day of the weigh-in.
This contest is for the UFC flyweight championship.
Full UFC 301 Odds
Main Events
Alexandre Pantoja is currently 4/11 (-280) to beat Steve Erceg, while Erceg is currently 21/10 (+210) to win if you fancy the upset.
Jonathan Martinez is made a favourite at 10/13 (-130) to come out the victor in a fight against Jose Aldo, while Aldo is currently 1/1 (+100) to win if you fancy the slight upset.
Main Card
Caio Borralho sits at 2/9 (-450) to win against Paul Craig, while Craig is currently 33/10 (+330) to win if you fancy the big upset.
Vitor Petrino is marked at 2/9 (-450) to be victorious against Anthony Smith, while Smith is currently 33/10 (+330) to win if you fancy the big upset.
Michel Pereira is currently 6/25 (-420) to defeat Ihor Potieria, while Potieria is currently 3/1 (+300) to win if you fancy the big upset.
Prelims
Drakkar Klose is made a favourite at 11/20 (-180) to beat Joaquim Silva, while Silva is currently 7/5 (+140) to win if you fancy the small upset.
Alessandro Costa sits at 7/10 (-140) to come out the victor in a fight against Kevin Borjas, while Borjas is currently 23/20 (+110) to win if you fancy the small upset.
Dione Barbosa is marked at 4/9 (-230) to win against Ernesta Kareckaite, while Kareckaite is currently 17/10 (+170) to win if you fancy the upset.
Joanderson Brito is currently 4/7 (-180) to be victorious against Jack Shore, while Shore is currently 11/8 (+140) to win if you fancy the small upset.
Myktybek Orolbay Uulu is made a favourite at 2/5 (-250) to defeat Elves Brenner, while Brenner is currently 2/1 (+200) to win if you fancy the upset.
Jean Silva sits at 8/11 (-140) to beat William Gomis, while Gomis is currently 11/10 (+110) to win if you fancy the slight upset.
Iasmin Lucindo is marked at 33/100 (-300) to come out the victor in a fight against Karolina Kowalkiewicz, while Kowalkiewicz is currently 12/5 (+240) to win if you fancy the upset.
Mauricio Ruffy is currently 4/7 (-180) to win against Jamie Mullarkey, while Mullarkey is currently 11/8 (+140) to win if you fancy the small upset.
Ismael Bonfim is made a favourite at 1/5 (-500) to be victorious against Vinc Pichel, while Pichel is currently 7/2 (+350) to win if you fancy the big upset.
Pantoja vs Erceg Head To Head
Alexandre Pantoja steps into the octagon with a record of 27 wins, 5 losses and 0 draws, 8 of those wins coming by the way of knock out and 10 by submission.
Steve Erceg will make his way to the cage with a record of 12 wins, 1 loss and 0 draws, 2 of those wins coming by knock out and 6 by submission.
The stats suggest Pantoja has an advantage in power over Erceg, with a 30% knock out percentage over Erceg's 17%.
Alexandre Pantoja is the older man by 6 years, at 34 years old.
Erceg has a height advantage of 4 inches over Pantoja. This also extends to a 1-inch reach advantage.
Pantoja is the more experienced professional fighter, having had 19 more fights, and made his debut in 2007, 8 years and 6 months earlier than Erceg, whose first professional fight was in 2016. He has fought 48 more professional rounds, 75 to Erceg's 27.
Pantoja vs Erceg betting form
Alexandre Pantoja has beaten 5 of his last 5 opponents.
In his last fight, he won against Brandon Royval at UFC 296 on 16th December 2023 by unanimous decision in their UFC Flyweight championship fight at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, United States.
Previous to that, he had beaten Brandon Moreno at UFC 290 on 8th July 2023 by split decision in their UFC Flyweight championship fight at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas.
Going into that contest, he had defeated Alex Perez at UFC 277 on 30th July 2022 by submission in the 1st round at Madison Square Garden, New York City.
Before that, he was victorious against Brandon Royval at UFC Vegas 34 on 21st August 2021 by submission in the 2nd round at UFC APEX, Enterprise.
He had won against Manel Kape at UFC Vegas 18 on 6th February 2021 by unanimous decision in their 3 round contest at UFC APEX, Las Vegas.
Who's been more active?
Pantoja's last 5 fights have come over a period of 3 years, 2 months and 20 days, meaning he has been fighting on average every 7 months and 23 days. In those fights, he fought a total of 16 rounds, meaning that they have lasted 3.2 rounds on average.
Erceg's last 3 fights have come over a period of 10 months and 16 days, meaning he has been fighting on average every 3 months and 17 days. In those fights, he fought a total of 8 rounds, meaning that they have lasted 2.7 rounds on average.
